Such a distribution of both human and physical core infrastructure offers a technologically advanced and militarily superior adversary a multitude of opportunities, ranging from political-military blackmail in times of heightened geopolitical crisis, to limited or large-scale offensive operations in times of war.
Another important contributing factor, which a possible adversary is likely to take into account, is the combined fighting potential of the ADF. Among them are the following but not necessarily in this exact order :. The ADF is a highly trained and combat experienced battle force, which continuously invests in acquiring advanced military capabilities that enable it to operate across all current and emerging battle domains.
In the context of the Chinese hypothetical invasion threat, two problem factors can be identified: the fighting force and the question of endurance. Over 50 per cent of that force some 50, personnel would staff combat and support land force formations in the initial phase of a hypothetical conflict.
This force, supported by elements of the RAAF and the RAN, could defend a specific sector or two of the Australian mainland, providing that other operational commitments for example, garrison duties in major cities and coastline patrol are reduced to a minimum.
Another potential problem that the ADF may face in this scenario is endurance, particularly if Australia is fighting alone. Although detailed information about national stockpiles of munitions, critical spares, and fuel is not wholly open-source it is logical to expect that the ADF holds sufficient resources to engage in high tempo large scale operations for a certain period of time.
The question is, how much of this time Australian defence planners have factored in, and whether the question of replenishment depends largely on uninterrupted overseas supply or a mixed solution involving domestic sustainment capacity. The creation of the Sovereign Guided Weapons and Explosive Ordinance Enterprise is supposed to address some of these concerns. The question of fuel deposits, which has to be replenished regularly, remains.
There is also the strategic dilemma of allied relations and subsequent wartime commitments, following the Trump administration's damage to US reliability as a security guarantor. Bolton answered in two parts. Whether that would have lasted into a second term, who knows? But now that Trump has left office, the problem is solved, right?
If America can elect one Donald Trump, it can elect another. This is precisely the moment that the alliance comes into its own. Which is why Beijing generally employs coercion at a level just below the conventional definition of a hot war. And why it routinely uses economic coercion.
For example, American democracy came to the brink of failure not through external attack but through bitter internal division. For a democracy to succeed, it must remember that what unites is more important than what divides.
One small example: Australia Day. It was supposed to be a unifying national day but increasingly it divides. Creative leadership can overcome. Keep it as is to commemorate the advent of British Australia, and strike a new date to celebrate the original Australians.
Australia, as Noel Pearson has put it, has an ancient heritage, a British inheritance and a multicultural achievement. We can choose to make each other our worst enemies. They proceeded to reject the 'terra nullius' doctrine without overturning the traditional view that the Australian landmass had in fact been settled.
Had Australia actually been invaded, the descendants of its native population would be classified as a conquered people and their land rights would be abolished. Greens leader Richard Di Natale might like to explain to the Australian people why he is attempting to undermine native title by implying that Australia was invaded and conquered.
On 26 January , there was no sovereign state on the landmass we today call Australia. The land was sparsely populated with disparate nomadic tribes without a written language and a central government. Captain Arthur Phillip's arrival with his group of disease-stricken poorly-fed convicts in their new prison colony, on territory claimed for the British Crown seventeen years earlier by explorer James Cook, does not constitute an "invasion".
Far from the brutal instincts of actual invaders like Napoleon or Hitler, early British settlers built a colony that was surprisingly harmonious and committed to justice.
The federal seat of Bennelong held by former Prime Minister John Howard for 33 years is named after him. Phillip once forgave a native for stealing his shovel because he understood that in native culture people shared what they had and there was no concept of exclusive personal belongings. Hardly the attitude of an invader. In , Governor Lachlan Macquarie appointed native leaders to act as conduits between settlers and natives. He welcomed the natives who aspired to be part of the new colony.
The perpetrators were trialled, 7 of the 11 involved were found guilty of murder, and hanged. Whether Australia's colonisation by the British Empire should be classified as an invasion or settlement is not a question of mere semantics.
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